Thursday August 29, 2019 from 08:30 to 10:10
Future refrigerant mix estimates as a result of the European Union regulation on fluorinated gases
Pavel Makhnatch1, Adrián MOTA-BABILONI2, Rahmatollah KHODABANDEH1.
1KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden; 2Universitat Jaume I Castellón de la Plana, Castellón, Spain
The requirements of the European Union (EU) regulation on fluorinated greenhouse gases has created an incentive to reduce their amount (including many commonly used refrigerants) that can be placed on the EU market to 21% of the baseline level. This study attempts to develop a methodology to predict the future refrigerant mix in refrigeration, air conditioning, and heat pumps that will be available to the EU customers by 2021 and 2030 years. The work is based on the relevant current statistical data, refrigerant distribution, and future technology acceptance and trends in refrigerants. The study presents a refrigerant demand grow scenario and provides a basis for closer market follow up in order to facilitate decision making for refrigeration industry stakeholders. The results of the study indicate that by 2021 will be difficult to accomplish the fluorinated gas quota but by 2030 the transition is possible. By that time, the natural refrigerants will dominate the market and a small share of lower GWP refrigerants will be necessary in specific applications.